Recon For Investors (RFI) is an Information Service that provides: Weekly Updates, Daily Updates, and Special Reports; via Internet, e-mail, or Fax that provides: financial, investment, political and other "Recon" that has the potential to impact the financial markets and the economy. RFI also highlights "hazards and opportunities". RFI is not targeted towards the "average investor" but professionals, traders and others that aren't necessarily interested in "consensus" opinions and positions.
RFI uses a proprietary indicator and filtering methods to analyze and gauge the potential near and intermediate term direction of the markets, and incorporates Futures analysis in its Updates as a comparison/filter for the signals in the Indicator Activity. RFI's Indicator and filtering methods are used to determine the near and intermediate term market direction for trading activity, which erroneously labels RFI as a "Market Timer". RFI can be used as a market timing device, but it is geared towards trading and exploiting hazards and opportunities.
The primary purpose of the Indicator's signals are to enable subscribers to make their own decisions, as RFI considers our subscribers "sentient adults", about not only trading activity but whether the market conditions are favorable to your goals and risk tolerance.
RFI also reports "Recon" we receive about specific companies, sectors, etc. RFI has been following a thread in the Tech Sector for the past two years which covers the future trends in the Tech Sector and Internet. "Consensus" it is not, and RFI's "NC Special Report" was the "source" for the flurry of reporting on the NC in November 1995. RFI will continue with this thread in 1997. Other "Recon" includes information and "Recon" we might receive on specific companies, etc., that could move the markets in the individual issues, sectors, etc. RFI doesn't desire to move markets but to get you positioned before they move. We don't want our "very own herd". RFI's Special Reports are issued at least twelve (12) times a year. The Special Report format enables RFI to address a topic in depth and they are usually between 4-8 pages in length and can consist of several parts. Examples of Special Reports in 1996 include: "Portable & Wireless NC Special Report", "Anno Tempeste, Anno Spero" (Year of Storm, Year of Hope), "The Not Intel Standard & Strategy", "Bear Market Potential", "Net Zero Mutual Funds/The Reason", "Bond Models", "The OpenDoc Revolution Special Reports" (Pts. I & II).
The Special Reports are definitely not consensus and they are usually called "heresy" until the premises they are based on suddenly become "consensus". But, we're used to that.
RFI is not for the average investor, and we dissuade more subscribers than we accept. Why? RFI doesn't cover mutual funds, structure "model portfolios" for subscribers to adhere to, or even deign to suggest where you should allocate your assets. Nor do we "Hype" our performance record because we don't expect you to exploit every hazard or opportunity we point out. Only those you feel that meet your goals and risk tolerance. The only "performance" that counts is in your account. RFI is "Recon", sometimes "raw", that is meant as a tool for investors to make their own informed decisions on the hazards and opportunities the markets afford. If you want someone to hold your hand and tell you what you should do, then we'll happily steer you towards any number of publications and services that will address your needs and desires because RFI is not for you.
As for not structuring model portfolios, RFI feels they are a marketing gimmick to use as a "Benchmark" to advertise performance. A 62 year old investor has different goals and risk tolerances than a 26 year old investor, so how can a "model portfolio" be appropriate for both? Answer, it can't.
As for Mutual Funds, please don't get us started on that topic. Others hype the benefits of mutual funds but rarely bother to point out the attendant risks. But, RFI needn't get into that here. If you want coverage of mutual funds, RFI is not the service you seek.
Bottom Line? If you think RFI is a service that can address your needs and desires, continue reading. If not, then thank you for your query about Recon For Investors.
RFI doesn't pretend that we have some "magic formula" that will produce 10,000% gains or are infallible. Nor does RFI attempt to "compete" with the services that make such claims. Instead, RFI provides information and our analysis for you to use in making your own decisions, even if it means going "contrarian" to RFI's analysis, opinion and position. However, RFI has been able to identify lucrative "hazards and opportunities" long before they hit others' radar screens. And doing that, enabled people to be positioned to reap large profits if they exploited them.
RFI isn't about "hyping" certain stocks or vehicles, or taking compensation from companies to cover them in RFI. That's another of our "ground rules". Our only allegiance is to our subscribers. What we are about is delivering information on hazards and opportunities so you can profit from them.
If that's the type of information service you want, then RFI just might suit your needs.
RFI is published by Echo 4 Holdings and edited by Robert Morgan. Robert Morgan has over 13 years experience in information/intelligence gathering, research and analysis, reporting and other divers experiences at the governmental and corporate level. After performing antiterrorism and other duties for the government, he entered the world of corporate intelligence and when the opportunity presented itself, he founded Echo 4.
Echo 4 Holdings is primarily a Research & Analysis / Research & Development firm that has since branched out into other activities; which includes publishing RFI. "Echo 4" was one of Robert Morgan's old call signs when he was performing Antiterrorism and Special Operations duties. And for what the mission of Echo 4 was, the name was appropriate.
Recon For Investors (RFI) isn't an "open-ended" Information Service, where the number of subscribers is only limited by how many people wish to subscribe. When Robert Morgan was asked, yes asked, to supplement the private briefings given by Echo 4 with the publication of RFI, several ground rules were established; chief among them that there would be "Global Limits" placed on the total number of subscribers. The "Global Limit" was placed at an absolute of 10,000 but only 5,000 of them would be used. RFI was designed to be of "Limited Distribution" (LIMDIS) yet priced more reasonably than other limited distribution services.
The "Global Limits" has caused some to describe RFI as "elitist" but they miss the point of why we instituted "Global Limits" from the start.
There are numerous examples of analysts and services that have either developed a proprietary indicator or system that produces great performance and establishes a great track record. Then, as soon as everyone begins following the indicator or using the system, "Creating Their Own Herd", performance goes off a cliff and people wonder why the indicator or system doesn't work as well as it used to. And it all boils down to who can pull the trigger first instead of getting positioned before the markets move. It's been repeated all too often. Therefore, RFI made a conscious decision that we didn't want to create our own herd and degrade performance but to keep it as small as possible and within manageable limits. Ergo, "Global Limits".
Hand in hand with those "Global Limits" is privacy. RFI considers our subscribers' privacy as precious as our own personal privacy. As far as Echo 4 and RFI are concerned, it's no one's business who subscribes to RFI and the only way anyone will know that you subscribe to RFI is if you tell them. RFI does not release, rent or sell its subscriber information. Ergo, not only is access to RFI limited, but access to your subscriber information remains "access denied" to all but RFI.
What follows are a few examples of the "Recon" Echo 4 and RFI was able to provide its subscribers. And while we hope that this "streak" continues, we have to use the chestnut: "Past performance is no guarantee of future results". Now that the "disclaimer" is taken care of, let's review some instances.
1) In 1993, when others were sounding the death knell of IBM, Echo 4 was pounding the table that IBM was a screaming buy and that the markets wouldn't see IBM at 40 for a long time to come. You see, Echo 4 was actually paying attention to the new IBM Chairman when he outlined his strategy of "Network Centric Computing". And Echo 4 began following the thread of "Network Computers" (NC), as well as the attendant revolutions that would accompany this revolutionary strategy.
2) In late 1993, when "consensus" was bullish on the dollar and Bond markets, Echo 4 was receiving "Erratic" information and "Recon" that all was not going to go the way of the Bulls. The surprise interest rate hikes of early 1994 weren't a surprise to Echo 4. Then, on 15 April (Tax Day no less) Echo 4 received some "Recon" that the dollar was about to decline against the yen by approximately 10%, Oil prices were to spike by about the same, and that this would cause both the bond and Stock Markets to tumble. It was a "Screaming Sell Signal".
Echo 4 gave the warning and everyone was aware of it before it hit. People were able to position themselves short the dollar, long the yen, long on oil, as well as shorting the Bond and the markets. Within days after that warning, the markets did exactly as Echo 4 warned. The "Dollar Limbo" of 1994, Oil Spikes, "Bond Bloodbath", "The Silent Bear of 94", enabled those who had the recon and exploited the opportunities to profit handsomely.
3) In October 1994, RFI also identified future trends in the Internet and Tech Sector which led to the writing of the "Quantum Leap ISP Network & Business Model" White Paper; as well as postulating the then "heresy": "IAM Seeing The Future & It Isn't Intel..." Only recently are the pundits postulating RFI's 2 year old "heresy".
4) "Tech Sector Slaughter". After 1994, RFI thought it would be hard to top the coup of "Dollar Limbo, et al". However, in early July 1995 RFI's indicator revealed two things. First, the Tech Sector was about to undergo a "Slaughter" within days. Secondly, the indicator gave a signal that the "Great Bull" days were going to come to a close with the open-ended issuance of a "Generational Sell Signal Window". When the "Bear" finally arrives, its initial warning shot was given in July 1995. RFI issued its warning days before the slaughter and enabled people who exploited the opportunity to profit. That Generational Sell Signal also put RFI on "Bear Watch". It's had many false starts but RFI is willing to trade the markets until that "One Specific Value" comes along.
5) In July 1995, RFI also dared go on record with the "problems" with Windows 95 and dared speak publicly what others would only whisper about. And, RFI stated that the launch of Windows 95 would not impact the Tech Sector as much as the markets hoped. RFI knew back then that the Tech Sector was being set up for another fall.
6) In December '95, RFI stated that the Semiconductor Book-to-Bill Report would "tank below 1 and stay there for at least a quarter". In late January '96, RFI was able to confirm that the December '95 Book-to-Bill Report would come in below 1 and issued its warning. Within days, the report was issued and RFI was proven correct. And, RFI has been proven right on its forecasts for the Tech Sector all year.
7) In late April '96, RFI stated that the markets were near a top and issued its warning. The subsequent warnings and tumbles all the way to the July lows were "called" by RFI. And during the dark days of July, RFI issued its "Potential Bear Market" Special Report that forecast that while "technically" July probably presaged a Bear Market, the markets would rally to New Highs. But the Second Warning shot was fired before the July Tumble and RFI warned people.
8) Now? The Future????
Is RFI infallible? Of course not. RFI stumbles just like every other sentient human and we've had our share of mistakes as well. However, RFI does its best to strive for 66% right and to limit downside risk in case we are wrong. We didn't list all the "mea culpas" we've issued, but when we're "wrong" we don't forget and use the "Windshield Wiper Effect" that The Street is enamored of using. We'll issue a "Mea Culpa".
Recon For Investors (RFI) provides Weekly & Daily Updates, and Special Reports as warranted, via Internet, e-mail or Fax, that provides financial, investment, political "Recon" that has the potential to impact the financial markets and the economy. For general market direction, RFI uses a proprietary indicator and filtering method to gauge the potential near and intermediate term direction of the markets, and incorporates Futures analysis in its Updates as a comparison/filter for the Indicator Activity.
RFI Weekly Update: is distributed over the weekend before Monday's opening and gives a forecast at the "Week Ahead" regarding the general markets. The Weekly Update contains "general information" as well as other "Recon" , Information, Analysis and Commentary. E-mail Updates include hypertext links when relevant.
Daily Update: RFI's Daily Updates are distributed during the week with notifications on Indicator & Market Activity that reflect signals or changes in the Indicator Activity that could impact the positions previously established. They also include time snesitive "Recon" that RFI obtains during the week. Special Daily Updates / Supplements are also sent out on an "As Needed" basis. E-mail Update include hypertext links when relevant.
Special Reports: Special Reports are issued when RFI desires to cover an issue/topic in-depth. Recent Examples include: NC Special Report, Wireless NC Special Report, Not Intel Standard & Strategy Special Report, Bear Market Potential Special Report, Mutual Fund Net Zero Special Report, Bond Models Special Report, and The OpenDoc Revolution Pts. I & II Special Report. These are included in the subscription.
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1) Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results. Subscribers Are Encouraged To Perform Their Own Due Diligence Prior To Making An Investment Decision.
2) RFI is not in the business of promoting, buying or selling securities. If RFI has any known potential conflict of interest, it will be declared. Queries Welcomed.
3) Subscriptions Will Commence Upon Payment Receipt & Clearance. E-mail any payment queries to rfi@pelagius.com
4) RFI is not responsible for non-delivery problems on the subscriber's end with either Fax or e-mail. When Web Based Access for Updates is enabled, Subscribers will be issued a user name and password by RFI.
5) RFI Subscriptions are for the subscriber's sole use and may not be: duplicated, distributed, etc. without the express written consent of Echo 4 / RFI.
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