We saw the reports cross the wires and heard the subsequent reports of Richard Wolpert's departure as President of Disney Online "to pursue other professional interests" and it raised eyebrows around here; as well as other places. And, it brought back memories of what a "LA LA Land" type said about Disney or others possibly forcing Mr. Jobs' hand over several issues. After the introduction of the iMac we had to consign those reports to the pending box as it no longer appeared likely.
Mr. Wolpert's departure from Disney Online raised our eyebrows as it was so close to not only the introduction of blast.com for the Mac at MWNY but also close to the window where those rumored moves would have to occur. Yet, we don't want to get into rampant speculation over this issue. With Apple's recent actions and performance Mr. Jobs' ratings with Apple shareholders is at a high. No one really wants to rock the boat. Apple has more than tripled since the July '97 lows.
But, Mr. Wolpert's departure also started a lot of speculation and not all of it is good. No sooner had the West Coast awakened to the news that people started wondering whether Mr. Wolpert's departure was in any way related to the recent Apple announcements. To the best of our knowledge, no it wasn't. And, we don't think it had anything to do with Mr. Wolpert's joke during the keynote. Mr. Wolpert wasn't being a cowboy on this.
When and if Mr. Wolpert resurfaces in a new position, the questions pertaining to his fate will be answered. We have heard nothing concrete as yet. And we do not think this will impact any future developments between Apple and Disney.
With the 3Q earnings and Morgan Stanley upgrade of Apple, Apple's price and volume leapt northward and there were finally 40 series opened on AAPL. And, there are no 42 1/2 or 45 series opened. That probably won't happen until after expiry. But, the volume was quite healthy and we could say that 32 is now support for AAPL; with 35 as strike support.
AAPL has had a heck of a run and it might have a lot more room to run once the iMac is launched. But with such a large move in such a short span of time it is due for a rest. But, there are potential "surprises" in August, and people are looking to Seybold.
RFI has no change in strategy vis-a-vis AAPL but you should maintain stops on your call positions in case the markets reverse and head lower. We're Bucking a Tiger and it could get wild.
After the earnings reports were over and done with RFI waited to see what might come of the other expected "news" from Apple. Apparently, the "news" won't be forthcoming but it sure as heck made yesterday all the more interesting. There were rumors and reports that people were being granted interviews with Mr. Jobs and that raised our eyebrows. Given the fact that Mr. Jobs' isn't the "interview type," we found it strange that he would be granting interviews on the day of the earnings report.
No matter. Possibly Mr. Jobs granted interviews with Business Week, Fortune, Forbes or some other magazine. We'll have to see.
But, the earnings news was more than enough for The Street so we're not concerned. But it is "funny" that those reports hit two days before Mr. Wolpert departed Disney and Apple named a new executive for consumer marketing.
If we hear anything, we'll keep you posted.
During the Set Top Box brouhaha, RFI reported that Macromedia (MACR.O) might become takeover fodder for Adobe. After Macromedia's deal with Apple (AAPL.O) that issue appeared moot. Well, no sooner than the MWNY Report was out RFI was asked whether we had heard anything regarding Adobe and GoLive! It was the first we had heard about it as we were having tunnel vision on not only MWNY but Apple's 3Q earnings. But, such a deal would "fit" with Adobe's intention to integrate everything into its "Quark Killer" as GoLive! is a competitive threat to the PageMill/SiteMill combo.
GoLive! CyberStudio Personal Edition costs less than PageMill and burns it in features and performance. The Professional Edition costs more but is very popular.
So, now we're off to digging into this rumor to see what we can kick up. Heck, maybe MTK knows. We'll ask. Who knows?
RFI expects Apple to post sequential growth in both units and earnings in both 4Q and 1Q. This will finally give Apple the proof that it can achieve "growth," and we've been hearing whispers that "Apple wants to earn a buck in earnings no later than 1Q." Not an exact quote, but a paraphrasing of the sentiment. If this does occur, then AAPL could conceivably get back to the 50 -60 range as long as the markets don't tank. And, that price target could come to fruition in the window between October - January. In other words, the months where the earnings are reported. Of course, it could happen sooner.
In talking with a Trader, they opined that if Apple "Could Get a P/E then Apple's a 40 to 60 dollar stock..." They're right. RFI knows that Apple does want to post four consecutive quarters of profitability where revenues and earnings grow. They also want to grow units so there is consecutive and year over year growth that will probably be evident starting in 4Q.
And, that is why Apple is placing such importance on the launch of the iMac. It will enable Apple to hit its targets.
During the conference call yesterday Mr. Anderson sidestepped the issue of Best Buy and "Son of Salon Store" by stating that the decision was entirely up to Mr. Mandich when, if and who he would desire to expand the Apple "Store Within a Store" concept to Best Buy or others. These questions came up in respect to the channel for the iMac.
While RFI will take Mr. Anderson's comments as "Gospel" for the moment, it was the best Non-Denial Denial we have heard in a while. No, we're not implying anything, we're simply stating that Mr. Anderson did not give a definitive answer.
So, we're still on "Best Buy" watch. That's as far as we're concerned. When someone doesn't give a definitive "No," then that means it's possible.
Working....
Apple Recon
