As far as Apple is concerned, people are asking about our "Whisper Numbers" for the Q3 earnings. Consensus is forecasting 34¢ EPS on a diluted basis. That is 4¢ below the diluted EPS for Q2. That the consensus estimates are lower than Apple's Q2 is mainly due from the guidance that Apple provided during the previous earnings report. They told the analysts not to look for sequential growth in Q3, and not to expect sustained year over year growth until Q1 '99 (FY).
If, and it's a highly qualified "if," Apple has been able to make that "last 15 - 20% in sales" over the past month to meet its targets, then RFI suspects that we might see Apple's Q3 earnings come in within the range of 38 - 42¢ EPS on a diluted basis. Yes, we know that there are a lot of fungibles as far as the earnings go, and that the numbers aren't done until they're compiled, juggled, jiggled and set. In other words, until "The Fat Lady Sings" and the "reviews" come in.
But, one has to look at the fact that G3 demand has not slackened and the demand for the G3 PowerBooks is sustained. Granted, there were supply problems but they were being eased as the quarter ended. RFI has been receiving reports that the G3 PB 292's are finally arriving in customer's hands and that was before the end of the month. That is a "good omen."
And, we have also noted that just about the last of the Apple 603 / 604 inventory has made its ways to the catalogers and "gray marketers" so that inventory has finally been about exhausted.
What has been neglected by a lot of the analysts is that the sales of the Artemis All-In-One configuration for the Ed Channel have been extremely good and that bodes well for Apple's Ed Channel numbers. Especially in this quarter. And, as a general rule, the Ed Channel usually pulls Apple's "cookies" out of the fire. And if Apple's sales of Artemis has been extremely good, then....
What has also been neglected by some is that Apple allegedly received another "greenmail payment" from Microsoft in Q3 which would boost its "income." What also will be booked are the revenues from the portion of Apple's equity that they sold in the Advanced Risc Machines IPO; amongst other things. On balance, that might mean that Apple will have a nice boost in "revenue" that will translate into earnings.
So, we could see that "Surprise" come 15 Jul 98 when Apple reports its Q3 earnings. RFI will be repeating this item in the RFI Apple Recon Update so you'll have it in both places.
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