The Indicator issued a Null Signal which is not bothersome. However, there is the potential for a heart stopping decline, which we mentioned yesterday.
There is no change in Strategy. Keep the intraday stops where they are. The Bucking Tiger will probably attempt to toss us off today, or leap into the air to see if we will decide to jump off.
The Weekly Update will address the markets, etc.
NOTE: to Apple Recon Readers. Don't take this reference to the Indicator and Strategy one way or another. In other words, don't try and run with this partial information. It would be going off half-cocked..... RFI
It has been posited by MacNN's Reality that the AMP/vMac was a total fabrication to hide the existence of the iMac and to sow confusion. If that were the case then it was a total failure. Why? Because RFI was discussing the "AIO Configuration" contemporaneous to the reportage of the AMP/vMac. Remember?
Yet, what is the basis for this positing by Reality? That the word "Columbus" was stamped on the iMac's board and the conclusion that the iMac was / is "Columbus" and that Apple would not use the same codename for more than one product. This is something RFI addressed a long time ago. "Columbus" is the board and not the box. "Artemis" is an example where the codename was for the box and not the board.
If we accept Reality's logic, then "Gossamer" could only represent "one box." Same goes for "Gossamer II." Same goes for "Tsunami." RFI asks a simple question: "How many products use(d) Tsunami, Gossamer and Gossamer II? If we accept Reality's positings as "True," then all of the other products that use the aforementioned boards are "fabrications." Better be careful. The Mac you might be using could disappear from your desktop as soon as you accept the positing as "true."
As soon as the iMac's guts were scrutinized by engineers, as reported in RFI contemporaneous to the events, sources stated that the iMac's board had "Columbus" stamped on it and that it also was designed for use in a Set Top Box; as well as other uses. For, what is the iMac but a Set Top Box / Monitor Combo, just like the TV/VCR combos that RFI used as an example? All of this is "Old News." Those who know, won't pay attention to it and those who don't will get confused.
And, if we also accept the "AMP Fabrication to Conceal the iMac Conspiracy" scenario, then Apple's actions succeeded in gaining a "Pyrrhic Victory." But, we'll let you decide for yourself.
If the AMP/vMac was a fabrication then Apple went to great (some would say dangerously extreme) lengths to perpetuate the fabrication. They went to such great lengths that they reportedly held licensing talks with the likes of Sony, Samsung, et al. They went to such great lengths that they sent Apple Reps. out to the "LA LA LAnd" of Hollywood and the Entertainment Industry to pre-market the AMP/vMac boxes to them. Thereby getting Hollywood and the Entertainment Industry all hot and bothered over the potential for those fabrications. Apple went to such great lengths that they succeeded in also provoking the: ire, wrath and disgust of some of Apple's "Core Markets," especially "The Creative World" that MWNY is supposed to be all about. Then, Mr. Jobs rubs salt on the wounds with the "LA LA LAnd" comments. Oh yes, as a "Strategy" it was a resounding success.
Ah, but some would say, the iMac was what they were really referring to. Wrong. The "LA LA LAnd" types that RFI talked with on these boxes aren't stupid. They were pre-marketed a "Set Top Box," not some "Retro AIO" configuration. That's the "Sizzle" they were given. And, there was no way they were "mistaken." And if that is the tack that people are going to take on this, then all they will succeed in doing is "Hacking Off" even more people than were previously hacked off. Remember the prior coverage on this in RFI.
So, RFI asks some simple questions: "What scenario is more credible? The fabrication cum conspiracy scenario or the 'Steveing' Scenario? Which has precedent and basis in factual events? In other words, products have been "Steved" and the "conspiracy" is a positing. C'est la guerre. If the Reality scenario is the "official line," then Apple will have a lot of people hacked off at them; for it's not us but those who are basically being called "Fools and Dupes" by Apple. And, if it was the case, then the Apple Reps better be careful when and if they ever show their faces around those people ever again. And, they won't be believed when they say that something is coming and soon. Apple's pre-marketing to them has come to an end.
And, as it now stands, it doesn't really matter which is "true." Why? Because Apple had the opportunity to define the Set Top Box market but did a "Wrong Way Corrigan." And those "LA LA LAnd" types are now going to settle for those "Good Enough Set Top Boxes" and will tailor their products, content and "value added content" towards them. Then, Apple and the Mac Community will bemoan the fact that there is "no content" for the Mac offerings and the ubiquity of QuickTime doesn't address the issue. Then we'll also hear complaints that "the Mac platform is being ignored / snubbed." Well, who is responsible for that? Not "LA LA LAnd."
Those Acer, et al, Set Top Boxes ("Good Enough") might "Dog Rob" iMac sales to the Mass Consumer Market, as will those Compaq Kiosk "Internet PCs." And then, there will be wailing, weeping and gnashing of teeth. Sorry. You don't understand, it was all a "fabrication" to protect the iMac's existence. They don't really exist.
As we said, it doesn't matter anymore. It really doesn't. "LA LA LAnd" will settle for those "Good Enough Boxes" and platforms, that will sell better than WebTV and WebTV NexGen. And, Apple's AMP/vMac will probably appear in some future edition of Apple Designs as "A Really Cool Consumer Product That Was So Much Better But Never Shipped..." And, people will wonder why.
Finally. The AMP/vMac "fabrication" scenario doesn't wash either. It was a complete failure as RFI was discussing the "AIO" (aka: iMac) contemporaneous to the AMP/vMac. If it was all a grand effort to conceal the existence of the iMac, it failed. And failed miserably.
Enough said.
Not only do we suggest that you read the column, but we also suggest that you register your vote if you so desire. Some wanted RFI to mount an "Insurrection" but it appears that one is underway.....
Oh my, my! Microsoft is going to have a major presence at MWNY '98. But, don't expect a redux of Boston '97. That shouldn't come until late '98 or sometime in '99 if our sources are correct. "Think Promotion." Think: Office98, IE, NT Connectivity, iNTegration, etc. Yet, don't put "surprises" past both Apple and/or Microsoft. Mr. Jobs' absence notwithstanding. AAPL / MSFT "news" can be generated.
Yet, RFI is not really looking for a MSFT "Headline Deal" at MWNY '98. But, we gather that the definition of "Headline News" is a matter of perspective. We shall see what we shall see. Just keep your eyes and ears open.
Let's see what develops from this "major presence," as well as the "Think Promotion" aspects. It might prove interesting. Well, amusing at the very least.
RFI addressed this at the time those 9600 "G3" boxes were placed in the Ingram inventory. RFI stated, at the time, that it was probably an attempt by Apple to gauge the demand for 6 PCI Slot G3 Macs. We later reported that it was a heck of a way to blow out 9600 inventory by bundling a G3 Upgrade card to give the markets a 6 PCI Slot G3 Mac. Yes. It's all "Old News."
Recently, on MacCentral, Don Crabb reported that Apple intends to launch 6 PCI Slot G3 boxes at MWNY, and then they backtracked and called it a "Trial Balloon." This was reported even though RFI's "Recon" was that Apple was of the opinion that since a lot of the PCI Card functions would be moved to either the motherboard or a Personality Card that 6 PCI Slot G3 Macs were a "moot" issue. Again, "Old News."
So, what does the latest "Recon" say? Apple is back on the fence and is floating trial balloons; which Mr. Crabb's reports appear to indicate. It also indicates other things. Like trying to delay any defection of major houses from the Mac to NT.
What?! Defections?! Yup. RFI has been receiving reports that houses of all sizes are considering "defecting" to NT when NT5 is released, if not sooner. And while the migration costs might be expensive, they are looking to upgrade their systems and don't see Apple products as offering the features they need. So, "someone" decided to float the 6 PCI Slot G3 Mac trial balloon prior to MWNY with a far enough out target date so as to hopefully delay any decisions. Truth? Fiction? All we know is that those houses who are making "Migration Noises" aren't kidding. In fact, some are openly taking bids and / or conducting feasability studies. In other words, lining up the specs and what they will need in order to migrate. These type of projects are not undertaken unless they are probably going to pull the trigger and migrate. Even though that might mean buying entirely new font libraries. Well, at least Adobe, et al, will get some windfall business out of it.
FWIW, if Apple had wanted to "gauge interest" in 6 PCI Slot Macs, they could have asked RFI. We could have given them the answer months ago. And, we probably would not have asked for the requisite pound of flesh for the information. Well, maybe a "pro quo" for the "quid" they asked for.
If Apple is trying to throw up a smokescreen to delay those houses from migrating to NT by delaying their purchasing decisions, then Apple has probably realized that the "Prepress and Publishing Core Market" are not happy campers. Nor are the "LA LA LAnd" types who are already hacked off about the AMP/vMac.
And if Apple does stay on the fence but gives a rumored launch date between late Q3 '98 to Q1 '99 (Calendar Year), then people aren't going to buy it. They've been through that too many times before. There are things in the works, but RFI does not see this as something that will be "totally fulfilling" of the desires and needs of those who want those 6 PCI Slot G3 boxes.
Enough said.
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