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25 Jun 98

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RFI 980603-A

Boom Boom! Out Go The Lights!" : Mac Internet Sites

RFI has mentioned the concentration of Mac related information sources as well as mentioning that Apple envisions a future where 1 - 2 Mac Centric publications exist. Apple also envisions where there are fewer catalogers / mail order firms that sell Apple and Mac related products. As part of this, RFI mentioned that once Apple was "done with" the: Resellers / VARs, Catalogers, Mac Centric publications, etc. we shouldn't be surprised if Apple started culling Mac Centric Internet sites. And, we also stated that those Mac Centric Internet sites that didn't speak out now, who would be left to speak out for them once Apple came for them? No one could provide an answer to that one. Well, we'll soon see what the reactions will be because if what we've been hearing is true, then the markets will start culling the number of Mac Centric Internet sites sooner rather than later. And, Apple won't have to lift a finger.

Critics of RFI's positions on this stated that it would be impossible for Apple to do this and it would never happen. They asserted that those who ran the sites ran them out of an avocation rather than commerical interest. And, Apple could never stifle those sites. Oh really? We don't agree. Even if Apple didn't take direct action, its actions in its own self-interests would cause this culling.

Question: "What's the Achilles Heel of the majority of Mac Centric Internet sites?"

Answer: Ad Revenues.

Yes, it's those ad banners and other links that represent revenues that are placed into those site's coffers. Start choking off those ad revenues they receive and suddenly what was once a profit center becomes either revenue neutral or a cost center. How many of those "Independent Sites" would carry on if suddenly those revenues weren't making them money? Sooner, rather than later, it would be: "Boom! Boom! Out Go The Lights!" for a lot of those sites. Even the acknowledged "Major Mac Internet Sites." Would Blacklight Media continue Mac OS Rumors if it started losing money because ad revenues dried up? Would MacInTouch? MacCentral? Name your favorite site?

Already, a lot of the infighting, delinking, banning, embargoing, etc. that is going on in the Mac Centric Internet Site community is caused by an attempt to protect their ad revenue streams, and they are acting just like the Major Mac Publications that most of them say they're not like. And that's because they are chasing fewer ad dollars to be spent by a lot of companies; just like the Mac Centric pubs and Tech Centric pubs in general.

Which brings us back to the point: "If they don't speak up now, who will be left to speak for them when they come for them?" No one. RFI already stated that we wouldn't want to listen to them crying when it was their turn.

Do we know something? Suspect something? You bet your Aunt Fanny we do. And it's also the reason why we started issuing warnings weeks ago. And while it might take weeks or months for the impacts to be felt, it will surely be felt no matter what. And, sooner rather than later those Mac Internet sites will start feeling the Squeeze Play. And, it's not "Pressure from Apple" on their advertisers. It'll come from their advertisers paring or canceling their ad budgets for them altogether. While "Apple might be responsible," it's not Apple's fault.

As far as Apple Recon is concerned, we're not exposed and we can transform / expand faster than you can code HTML. It's a non-issue with us. The name might change but the content would remain the same, yet expanded. That's not so for those Mac Centric Internet sites whose entire existence is for Apple and Macs. And, whose revenue streams are dependent on banner ads from advertisers of Mac related products.

Apple won't have to lift a finger to pare down the numbers of Mac Centric Internet sites, the markets will do that for them. But, with an inevitable shake-out coming, we'll be interested to see whose "Real Colors" are shown as well as how nasty it will become once the impacts start hitting them where it hurts. And, we'll see which will be the first to fall by the wayside.

As we warned people, who will be left when they come for you? RFI suspects that a lot of people are going to be wishing that they had heeded our warnings and other missives once they realize what will be occurring.
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